USDINR Aug 02, 2013

This is a particularly difficult call to take. The equity markets look like selling off in the medium term, (India + US too), and the USDINR above too is giving a negative signal. Normally an Indian equity selloff should prop the above chart. In, the immediate though, Indian equities should be staging a small rally, and that might be sufficient to push the dollar down somewhat. 

Sticking purely to technicals, consider points 2 & 1 above.  They look similar in terms that they have a large advance opening up the Bollinger band, separation between the reds and the price, and between the reds and the blues, and declining momentum from high values of the Stochastic. Further in this case, the weeklies and dailies both show a divergence at high values. The monthly of the USDINR is also very extended. 

All said, we would not wish to initiate fresh longs in the dollar. We're not saying the trend will change. That is extremely in favour of the USD. However, right now it looks like shedding some weight.